India’s monsoon is facing increasing uncertainty as a strengthening El Niño climate pattern affects rainfall across the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that El Niño generally weakens the Indian summer monsoon, with its influence particularly strong during the later part of the season, including September. (Press Information Bureau)
The latest outlook indicates that September rainfall is likely to remain below normal, following a significant rainfall deficit in August. Reuters reported that India recorded a 16% shortfall in August and that September rainfall is expected to be below 91% of the long-term average. (Reuters)
However, lower overall rainfall does not necessarily mean fewer dangerous weather events. El Niño can contribute to a more uneven monsoon, with longer dry periods interrupted by episodes of very heavy rainfall. Such intense downpours can overwhelm drainage systems, trigger flash floods and increase the risk of landslides, particularly in vulnerable hilly and urban areas. Recent flooding and landslides in Kerala have highlighted these risks. (The Guardian)
The changing rainfall pattern could also affect agriculture, reservoirs, groundwater and water availability. Farmers may face reduced soil moisture, while sudden heavy rain can cause crop damage and soil erosion.
With September marking the final phase of the southwest monsoon, authorities are being urged to remain prepared for both rainfall deficits and sudden extreme rainfall events. (mausam.imd.gov.in)
News as reported
