Thiruvananthapuram, October 1, 2026: Southern Kerala is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the upcoming northeast monsoon season, while parts of northern Kerala could experience below-normal rainfall between October and December, according to the latest seasonal outlook and meteorological analysis.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast normal post-monsoon rainfall for South Peninsular India as a whole during October–December. Normal seasonal rainfall for the region is classified as between 88% and 112% of the Long Period Average. However, weather experts caution that this broader forecast does not mean rainfall will be distributed evenly across Kerala.
Meteorologist Rajeevan Erikkulam said southern parts of Kerala are expected to have better rainfall prospects, with normal to above-normal precipitation possible. Northern areas, meanwhile, may receive below-normal rainfall during the same period.
The forecast assumes greater importance after Kerala experienced a significantly deficient southwest monsoon in 2026. The state recorded 1,446.5 mm of rainfall between June 1 and September 30, making it Kerala’s seventh-lowest southwest monsoon rainfall since 1901.
Unlike the southwest monsoon, rainfall during the northeast monsoon can vary considerably from one region to another. Low-pressure systems and cyclonic circulations developing over the Bay of Bengal can strongly influence how much rain Kerala receives.
The northeast monsoon is expected to become established over southern India during October, and weather conditions may change depending on the development and movement of individual weather systems.
Residents, farmers and local authorities are therefore advised to follow short-term IMD forecasts and district-level warnings throughout the October–December period.
