Climate scientists warn that India faces a heightened risk of drought and a weaker southwest monsoon this year if a strong El Niño pattern develops in the Pacific Ocean. A recent study highlights that ocean salinity—alongside warmer seas—may be amplifying El Niño strength, increasing the chance of extreme events that historically weaken monsoon winds and reduce rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. In strong El Niño years, the likelihood of drought conditions in some regions rises to about 60 %, accompanied by higher temperatures and erratic rains, according to researchers.
Experts tracking Pacific climate patterns say La Niña conditions have been fading rapidly, and models indicate a possible strong El Niño by mid-2026. Such a shift could suppress the moisture-laden monsoon flow that delivers most of India’s annual rain, threatening agricultural production, water supplies and rural livelihoods.
In recent years, El Niño events have been linked with delayed or deficient monsoon rainfall, exacerbating dry spells, heatwaves and water scarcity in key farming regions. A weak monsoon could undermine food output and heighten stress on reservoirs and aquifers, prompting early preparedness calls from forecasters and policymakers. News as reported
